Purpose: We looked at the value of three preclinical cancer models, the in vitro human cell line, the human xenograft, and the murine allograft, to examine whether they are reliable in predicting clinical utility.
Experimental design: Thirty-one cytotoxic cancer drugs were selected. Literature was searched for drug activity in Phase II trials, human xenograft, and mouse allografts in breast, non-small cell lung, ovary, and colon cancers. Data from the National Cancer Institute Human Tumor Cell Line Screen were used to calculate drug in vitro preclinical activity for each cancer type. Phase II activity versus preclinical activity scatter plot and correlation analysis was conducted for each model, by tumor type (disease-oriented approach), using one tumor type as a predictor of overall activity in the other three tumor types combined (compound-oriented approach) and for all four tumor types together.
Results: The in vitro cell line model was predictive for non-small cell lung cancer under the disease-oriented approach, for breast and ovarian cancers under the compound-oriented approach, and for all four tumor types together. The mouse allograft model was not predictive. The human xenograft model was not predictive for breast or colon cancers, but was predictive for non-small cell lung and ovarian cancers when panels of xenografts were used.
Conclusions: These results suggest that under the right framework and when panels are used, the in vitro cell line and human xenograft models may be useful in predicting the Phase II clinical trial performance of cancer drugs. Murine allograft models, as used in this analysis, appear of limited utility.