Guessing imagined and live chance events: adults behave like children with live events

Br J Psychol. 2009 Nov;100(Pt 4):645-59. doi: 10.1348/000712608X386810. Epub 2008 Dec 10.

Abstract

An established finding is that adults prefer to guess before rather than after a chance event has happened. This is interpreted in terms of aversion to guessing when relatively incompetent: After throwing, the fall could be known. Adults (N=71, mean age 18;11, N=28, mean age 48;0) showed this preference with imagined die-throwing as in the published studies. With live die-throwing, children (N=64, aged 6 and 8 years; N=50, aged 5 and 6 years) and 15-year-olds (N=93, 46) showed the opposite preference, as did 17 adults. Seventeen-year-olds (N=82) were more likely to prefer to guess after throwing with live rather than imagined die-throwing. Reliance on imagined situations in the literature on decision-making under uncertainty ignores the possibility that adults imagine inaccurately how they would really feel: After a real die has been thrown, adults, like children, may feel there is less ambiguity about the outcome.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Choice Behavior*
  • Culture
  • Decision Making*
  • Fear
  • Female
  • Gambling / psychology*
  • Humans
  • Imagination*
  • Judgment
  • Male
  • Probability Learning*
  • Self Efficacy
  • Social Perception
  • Uncertainty*
  • Young Adult