Objective: To evaluate the mid-term prognostic value of procalcitonin (PCT), endotoxin and common inflammatory markers combining the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in patients with chronic severe hepatitis.
Methods: A total of 124 chronic severe hepatitis patients were enrolled, who were hospitalized in the Department of Infectious Diseases, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University from May 2011 to December 2011. Indexes of inflammation, liver and kidney function tests and MELD were determined within 24 h after the admission, and blood samples were collected for measurement of endotoxin , procalcitonin (PCT), and C-reactin protein (CRP). The outcome was confirmed after discharge follow-up at the end of the 3rd month. According to the outcome, the 124 patients were divided into a survival group (n=58) and a death group(n=66).
Results: 1) Of the 124 patients, 66 died and 58 survived, with statistical difference in age, MELD score, white blood cell (WBC), polymorphonuclear (PMN), CRP and PCT by single factor analysis between the 2 groups(P<0.05). Binary logistic regression analysis indicated that age, MELD scores and PCT were highly correlated with the outcome (OR=1.07, 1.42 and 1.02 respectively, P<0.05), which could be used to predict the 3 month mid-term mortality of chronic severe hepatitis. 2)There was significant correlation between the MELD scores and the mid-term mortality. Age was positively correlated with the MELD score, and Pearson's correlation coefficient was 0.21 (P<0.05). PCT was also positively correlated with the MELD, and Spearman's correlation coefficient was 0.54 (P<0.01). 3)According to the receiver operation characteristic (ROC) curve analysis , the area under the curve (AUC) of MELD score and PCT were 0.91 and 0.77 respectively, higher than those of other indexes (P<0.01). When the MELD score was up to 30.09 or higher, the predicted mortality risk among these tested patients was the highest(82.26%). The mortality risk predicted by PCT combining MELD score and PCT alone was lower than by MELD score alone (75.00%), but the specificity of MELD score combining PCT was 100%, and the positive prediction value was 1.00.
Conclusion: Endotoxin and common inflammatory markers (WBC, PMN, and CRP) are not reliable indicators to predict the prognosis in patients with chronic-severe hepatitis. MELD score is significantly correlated with the outcome of mid-term chronic severe hepatitis, PCT and age are both positively correlated with the MELD score. PCT and age combining MELD score can be used to predict the 3 month mid-term mortality of chronic severe hepatitis. MELD score has better prognostic value than PCT. MELD score combining PCT can improve the specificity of prediction.