This meta-analysis was performed to determine the accuracy of procalcitonin (PCT) in predicting mortality in pneumonia patients with different pathogenic features and disease severities. A systematic search of English-language articles was performed using PubMed, Embase, Web of Knowledge and the Cochrane Library to identify studies. The diagnostic value of PCT in predicting prognosis was determined using a bivariate meta-analysis model. The Q-test and I(2) index were used to test heterogeneity. A total of 21 studies comprising 6007 patients were included. An elevated PCT level was a risk factor for death from community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) (risk ratio (RR) 4.38, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.98-6.43), particularly in patients with a low CURB-65 score. The commonly used cut-off, 0.5 ng/mL, had low sensitivity (SEN) and was not able to identify patients at high risk of dying. Furthermore, the PCT assay with functional SEN <0.1 ng/mL was necessary to predict mortality in CAP in the clinic. For critically ill patients, an elevated PCT level was associated with an increased risk of mortality (RR 4.18, 95% CI: 3.19-5.48). The prognostic performance was nearly equal between patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) and patients with CAP.
Keywords: meta-analysis; mortality; pneumonia; procalcitonin; prognosis.
© 2015 The Authors. Respirology published by Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd on behalf of Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.