Forecasting the prevalence of preclinical and clinical Alzheimer's disease in the United States

Ron Brookmeyer; Nada Abdalla; Claudia H Kawas; María M Corrada

doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2017.10.009

Forecasting the prevalence of preclinical and clinical Alzheimer's disease in the United States

Alzheimers Dement. 2018 Feb;14(2):121-129. doi: 10.1016/j.jalz.2017.10.009. Epub 2017 Dec 7.

Authors

Ron Brookmeyer¹, Nada Abdalla², Claudia H Kawas³, María M Corrada⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Biostatistics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA. Electronic address: rbrookmeyer@ucla.edu.
² Department of Biostatistics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
³ Department of Neurology, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA; Department of Neurobiology and Behavior, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA; Institute for Memory Impairments and Neurological Disorders, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.
⁴ Department of Neurology, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA; Institute for Memory Impairments and Neurological Disorders, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA; Department of Epidemiology, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA.

Abstract

Introduction: We forecast the prevalence of preclinical and clinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) and evaluated potential impacts of primary and secondary preventions in the United States.

Methods: We used a multistate model incorporating biomarkers for preclinical AD with US population projections.

Results: Approximately 6.08 million Americans had either clinical AD or mild cognitive impairment due to AD in 2017 and that will grow to 15.0 million by 2060. In 2017, 46.7 million Americans had preclinical AD (amyloidosis, neurodegeneration, or both), although many may not progress to clinical disease during their lifetimes. Primary and secondary preventions have differential impact on future disease burden.

Discussion: Because large numbers of persons are living with preclinical AD, our results underscore the need for secondary preventions for persons with existing AD brain pathology who are likely to develop clinical disease during their lifetimes as well as primary preventions for persons without preclinical disease.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease; Forecast; Intervention; Prediction; Prevalence; Prevention; Statistics.

Publication types

Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

MeSH terms

Age Factors
Alzheimer Disease / complications
Alzheimer Disease / diagnosis*
Alzheimer Disease / epidemiology*
Cognition Disorders / epidemiology
Cognition Disorders / etiology
Disease Progression*
Female
Forecasting*
Humans
Male
Prevalence
United States / epidemiology

Grants and funding

R21 AG055361/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States