Estimating the potential yield and ETc of winter wheat across Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in the future with the modified DSSAT model

Xiaopei Tang; Ni Song; Zhifang Chen; Jinglei Wang; Jianqiang He

doi:10.1038/s41598-018-32980-4

Estimating the potential yield and ET_c of winter wheat across Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in the future with the modified DSSAT model

Sci Rep. 2018 Oct 18;8(1):15370. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-32980-4.

Authors

Xiaopei Tang^{1

2}, Ni Song^{1

2}, Zhifang Chen^{1

2}, Jinglei Wang^{3

4}, Jianqiang He⁵

Affiliations

¹ Farmland Irrigation Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Xinxiang, 453002, China.
² Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Key Laboratory of Crop Water Requirement and Regulation, Xinxiang, 453002, China.
³ Farmland Irrigation Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Xinxiang, 453002, China. firiwjl@126.com.
⁴ Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Key Laboratory of Crop Water Requirement and Regulation, Xinxiang, 453002, China. firiwjl@126.com.
⁵ Institute of Water Saving Agriculture in Arid Areas of China, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, 712100, China.

Abstract

The DSSAT model, integrated the calibrated Hargreaves ET model and dynamic crop coefficient, was run with the generated weather data by SDSM4.2 and CanESM2 to predict the potential yield and crop water requirement (ET_C) of winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in China under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results showed that the spatial distribution of potential yield in the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were similar, characterized by an increasing trend from the northwest inland to the southeast coast. The spatial distribution of ET_C decreased gradually from the Shandong Peninsula to the surrounding area, and the minimum ET_C was observed in the southern part of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. The potential yield, ET_C, and effective precipitation during winter wheat growing seasons might increase in the future under RCP4.5, while irrigation water requirements (IWR) would decrease. Under RCP8.5, the effective precipitation during the wheat growing seasons decreased first and then increased. However, the potential yield, ET_C, and IWR of winter wheat increased first and then decreased. This study can provide some scientific evidence to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on agricultural production and water use in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Acclimatization
Agricultural Irrigation*
China
Climate Change*
Models, Theoretical*
Plant Transpiration
Seasons*
Triticum / physiology*