Hypertension is a significant public health issue. The ability to predict the risk of developing hypertension could contribute to disease prevention strategies. This study used machine learning techniques to develop and validate a new risk prediction model for new-onset hypertension. In Japan, Industrial Safety and Health Law requires employers to provide annual health checkups to their employees. We used 2005-2016 health checkup data from 18 258 individuals, at the time of hypertension diagnosis [Year (0)] and in the two previous annual visits [Year (-1) and Year (-2)]. Data were entered into models based on machine learning methods (XGBoost and ensemble) or traditional statistical methods (logistic regression). Data were randomly split into a derivation set (75%, n = 13 694) used for model construction and development, and a validation set (25%, n = 4564) used to test performance of the derived models. The best predictor in the XGBoost model was systolic blood pressure during cardio-ankle vascular index measurement at Year (-1). Area under the receiver operator characteristic curve values in the validation cohort were 0.877, 0.881, and 0.859 for the XGBoost, ensemble, and logistic regression models, respectively. We have developed a highly precise prediction model for future hypertension using machine learning methods in a general normotensive population. This could be used to identify at-risk individuals and facilitate earlier non-pharmacological intervention to prevent the future development of hypertension.
Keywords: artificial intelligence; hypertension; machine learning; prediction model.
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