Large-scale population screenings are not feasible by applying laborious oral glucose tolerance tests, but using fasting blood glucose (FPG) and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), a considerable number of diagnoses are missed. A novel marker is urgently needed to improve the diagnostic accuracy of broad-scale diabetes screening in easy-to-collect blood samples. In this study, by applying a novel knowledge-based, multistage discovery and validation strategy, we scaled down from 108 diabetes-associated metabolites to a diagnostic metabolite triplet (Met-T), namely hexose, 2-hydroxybutyric/2-hydroxyisobutyric acid, and phenylalanine. Met-T showed in two independent cohorts, each comprising healthy controls, prediabetic, and diabetic individuals, distinctly higher diagnostic sensitivities for diabetes screening than FPG alone (>79.6 vs <68%). Missed diagnoses decreased from >32% using fasting plasma glucose down to <20.4%. Combining Met-T and fasting plasma glucose further improved the diagnostic accuracy. Additionally, a positive association of Met-T with future diabetes risk was found (odds ratio: 1.41; p = 1.03 × 10-6). The results reveal that missed prediabetes and diabetes diagnoses can be markedly reduced by applying Met-T alone or in combination with FPG and it opens perspectives for higher diagnostic accuracy in broad-scale diabetes-screening approaches using easy to collect sample materials.
Keywords: diabetes screening; liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry; metabolite markers; metabolomics; prediction of diabetes risk.