Potential geographic distribution of the tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) (Diptera: Culicidae) in current and future conditions for Colombia

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2021 May 11;15(5):e0008212. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008212. eCollection 2021 May.

Abstract

In Colombia, little is known on the distribution of the Asian mosquito Aedes albopictus, main vector of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Asia and Oceania. Therefore, this work sought to estimate its current and future potential geographic distribution under the Representative Concentration Paths (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios by 2050 and 2070, using ecological niche models. For this, predictions were made in MaxEnt, employing occurrences of A. albopictus from their native area and South America and bioclimatic variables of these places. We found that, from their invasion of Colombia to the most recent years, A. albopictus is present in 47% of the country, in peri-urban (20%), rural (23%), and urban (57%) areas between 0 and 1800 m, with Antioquia and Valle del Cauca being the departments with most of the records. Our ecological niche modelling for the currently suggests that A. albopictus is distributed in 96% of the Colombian continental surface up to 3000 m (p < 0.001) putting at risk at least 48 million of people that could be infected by the arboviruses that this species transmits. Additionally, by 2050 and 2070, under RCP 2.6 scenario, its distribution could cover to nearly 90% of continental extension up to 3100 m (≈55 million of people at risk), while under RCP 8.5 scenario, it could decrease below 60% of continental extension, but expand upward to 3200 m (< 38 million of people at risk). These results suggest that, currently in Colombia, A. albopictus is found throughout the country and climate change could diminish eventually its area of distribution, but increase its altitudinal range. In Colombia, surveillance and vector control programs must focus their attention on this vector to avoid complications in the national public health setting.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aedes / classification
  • Aedes / virology*
  • Animals
  • Arboviruses
  • Chikungunya Fever / epidemiology
  • Climate
  • Climate Change
  • Colombia / epidemiology
  • Dengue / epidemiology
  • Dengue Virus
  • Ecosystem
  • Geography / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • Introduced Species / statistics & numerical data*
  • Mosquito Vectors / virology*
  • Public Health
  • Risk
  • Zika Virus
  • Zika Virus Infection / epidemiology

Grants and funding

OAAO thanks to Universidad del Quindío for the financial support of Project 885, as well as your financial support for its translation into English and payment for its publication. https://www.uniquindio.edu.co/investigaciones/publicaciones/funciones_de_la_dependencia_3_pub The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.