Objectives: Early prediction of persistent organ failure (POF) is crucial for patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF15), also known as macrophage inhibitory cytokine 1 (MIC-1), is associated with inflammatory responses. We investigated changes in plasma GDF15 and assessed its predictive value in AP.
Methods: The study included 290 consecutive patients with AP admitted within 36 h after symptoms onset. Clinical data obtained during hospitalization were collected. Plasma GDF15 levels were determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. The predictive value of GDF15 for POF was analyzed.
Results: There were 105 mild, 111 moderately severe, and 74 severe AP patients. Plasma GDF15 peak level were measured on admission, and significantly declined on the 3rd and 7th day. Admission GDF15 predicted POF and mortality with areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.847 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.798-0.895) and 0.934 (95% CI 0.887-0.980), respectively. Admission GDF15, Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis, and hematocrit were independent factors for POF by univariate and multivariate logistic regression, and the nomogram built on these variables showed good performance (optimism-corrected c-statistic = 0.921). The combined predictive model increased the POF accuracy with an AUC 0.925 (95% CI 0.894-0.956), a net reclassification improvement of 0.3024 (95% CI: 0.1482-0.4565, P < 0.001), and an integrated discrimination index of 0.11 (95% CI 0.0497-0.1703; P < 0.001).
Conclusions: Plasma GDF15 measured within 48 h of symptom onset could help predict POF and mortality in AP patients.
Keywords: Acute pancreatitis; Growth differentiation factor 15; Mortality; Persistent organ failure; Prediction.
Copyright © 2021 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.