Bleeding in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) receiving intensive induction chemotherapy is multifactorial and contributes to early death. We sought to define the incidence and risk factors of grade 4 bleeding to support strategies for risk mitigation. Bleeding events were retrospectively assessed between day-14 and day +60 of induction treatment according to the World Health Organization (WHO) bleeding assessment scale, which includes grade 4 bleeding as fatal, life-threatening, retinal with visual impairment, or involving the central nervous system. Predictors were considered pretreatment or prior to grade 4 bleeding. Using multivariable competing-risk regression analysis with grade 4 bleeding as the primary outcome, we identified risk factors in the development cohort (n = 341), which were tested in an independent cohort (n = 143). Grade 4 bleeding occurred in 5.9% and 9.8% of patients in the development and validation cohort, respectively. Risk factors that were independently associated with grade 4 bleeding included baseline platelet count ≤40 × 109/L compared with >40 × 109/L, and baseline international normalized ratio of prothrombin time (PT-INR) >1.5 or 1.3 > 1.5 compared with ≤1.3. These variables were allocated points, which allowed for stratification of patients with low- and high-risk for grade 4 bleeding. Cumulative incidence of grade 4 bleeding at day+60 was significantly higher among patients with high- vs low-risk (development: 31 ± 7% vs 2 ± 1%; P < .001; validation: 25 ± 9% vs 7 ± 2%; P = .008). In both cohorts, high bleeding risk was associated with disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) and proliferative disease. We developed and validated a simple risk model for grade 4 bleeding, which enables the development of rational risk mitigation strategies to improve early mortality of intensive induction treatment.
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