Peer review: Risk and risk tolerance

PLoS One. 2022 Aug 26;17(8):e0273813. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0273813. eCollection 2022.

Abstract

Peer review, commonly used in grant funding decisions, relies on scientists' ability to evaluate research proposals' quality. Such judgments are sometimes beyond reviewers' discriminatory power and could lead to a reliance on subjective biases, including preferences for lower risk, incremental projects. However, peer reviewers' risk tolerance has not been well studied. We conducted a cross-sectional experiment of peer reviewers' evaluations of mock primary reviewers' comments in which the level and sources of risks and weaknesses were manipulated. Here we show that proposal risks more strongly predicted reviewers' scores than proposal strengths based on mock proposal evaluations. Risk tolerance was not predictive of scores but reviewer scoring leniency was predictive of overall and criteria scores. The evaluation of risks dominates reviewers' evaluation of research proposals and is a source of inter-reviewer variability. These results suggest that reviewer scoring variability may be attributed to the interpretation of proposal risks, and could benefit from intervention to improve the reliability of reviews. Additionally, the valuation of risk drives proposal evaluations and may reduce the chances that risky, but highly impactful science, is supported.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Cross-Sectional Studies
  • Financing, Organized*
  • Peer Review, Research*
  • Reproducibility of Results

Grants and funding

This work has been supported by the Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences Office of Multidisciplinary Activities at the National Science Foundation (https://www.nsf.gov), under the standard grant award numbers 1951132 (SG) and 1951251 (KS). The funders (NSF) had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.