Subways and CO2 emissions: A global analysis with satellite data

Abstract

This paper estimates a global CO2 emissions model using satellite data at 25 km resolution. The model incorporates industrial sources (including power, steel, cement, and refineries), fires, and non-industrial population-related factors associated with household incomes and energy requirements. It also tests the impact of subways in the 192 cities where they operate. We find highly significant effects with the expected signs for all model variables, including subways. In a counterfactual exercise estimating CO2 emissions with and without subways, we find they have reduced population-related CO2 emissions by about 50 % for the 192 cities and about 11 % globally. Extending the analysis to future subways for other cities, we estimate the magnitude and social value of CO2 emissions reductions with conservative assumptions about population and income growth and a range of values for the social cost of carbon and investment costs. Even under pessimistic assumptions for these costs, we find that hundreds of cities realize a significant climate co-benefit, along with benefits from reduced traffic congestion and local air pollution, which have traditionally motivated subway construction. Under more moderate assumptions, we find that, on climate grounds alone, hundreds of cities realize high enough social rates of return to warrant subway construction.

Keywords: CO2 emissions; Mass transit; OCO-2; Subway systems.