Measurable residual disease (MRD) is a powerful prognostic factor in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). However, pre-treatment molecular predictors of immunophenotypic MRD clearance remain unclear. We analyzed a dataset of 211 patients with pre-treatment next-generation sequencing who received induction chemotherapy and had MRD assessed by serial immunophenotypic monitoring after induction, subsequent therapy, and allogeneic stem cell transplant (allo-SCT). Induction chemotherapy led to MRD- remission, MRD+ remission, and persistent disease in 35%, 27%, and 38% of patients, respectively. With subsequent therapy, 34% of patients with MRD+ and 26% of patients with persistent disease converted to MRD-. Mutations in CEBPA, NRAS, KRAS, and NPM1 predicted high rates of MRD- remission, while mutations in TP53, SF3B1, ASXL1, and RUNX1 and karyotypic abnormalities including inv (3), monosomy 5 or 7 predicted low rates of MRD- remission. Patients with fewer individual clones were more likely to achieve MRD- remission. Among 132 patients who underwent allo-SCT, outcomes were favorable whether patients achieved early MRD- after induction or later MRD- after subsequent therapy prior to allo-SCT. As MRD conversion with chemotherapy prior to allo-SCT is rarely achieved in patients with specific baseline mutational patterns and high clone numbers, upfront inclusion of these patients into clinical trials should be considered.
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