A prediction nomogram for perineural invasion in colorectal cancer patients: a retrospective study

Background: Perineural invasion (PNI), as the fifth recognized pathway for the spread and metastasis of colorectal cancer (CRC), has increasingly garnered widespread attention. The preoperative identification of whether colorectal cancer (CRC) patients exhibit PNI can assist clinical practitioners in enhancing preoperative decision-making, including determining the necessity of neoadjuvant therapy and the appropriateness of surgical resection. The primary objective of this study is to construct and validate a preoperative predictive model for assessing the risk of perineural invasion (PNI) in patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC).

Materials and methods: A total of 335 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC) at a single medical center were subject to random allocation, with 221 individuals assigned to a training dataset and 114 to a validation dataset, maintaining a ratio of 2:1. Comprehensive preoperative clinical and pathological data were meticulously gathered for analysis. Initial exploration involved conducting univariate logistic regression analysis, with subsequent inclusion of variables demonstrating a significance level of p < 0.05 into the multivariate logistic regression analysis, aiming to ascertain independent predictive factors, all while maintaining a p-value threshold of less than 0.05. From the culmination of these factors, a nomogram was meticulously devised. Rigorous evaluation of this nomogram's precision and reliability encompassed Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, calibration curve assessment, and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA). The robustness and accuracy were further fortified through application of the bootstrap method, which entailed 1000 independent dataset samplings to perform discrimination and calibration procedures.

Results: The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis unveiled independent risk factors for perineural invasion (PNI) in patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC). These factors included tumor histological differentiation (grade) (OR = 0.15, 95% CI = 0.03-0.74, p = 0.02), primary tumor location (OR = 2.49, 95% CI = 1.21-5.12, p = 0.013), gross tumor type (OR = 0.42, 95% CI = 0.22-0.81, p = 0.01), N staging in CT (OR = 3.44, 95% CI = 1.74-6.80, p < 0.001), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level (OR = 3.13, 95% CI = 1.60-6.13, p = 0.001), and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) (OR = 2.07, 95% CI = 1.08-3.96, p = 0.028).These findings formed the basis for constructing a predictive nomogram, which exhibited an impressive area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.772 (95% CI, 0.712-0.833). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test confirmed the model's excellent fit (p = 0.47), and the calibration curve demonstrated consistent performance. Furthermore, decision curve analysis (DCA) underscored a substantial net benefit across the risk range of 13% to 85%, reaffirming the nomogram's reliability through rigorous internal validation.

Conclusion: We have formulated a highly reliable nomogram that provides valuable assistance to clinical practitioners in preoperatively assessing the likelihood of perineural invasion (PNI) among colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. This tool holds significant potential in offering guidance for treatment strategy formulation.