The utilization of medical services by patients is an important determinant of doctor productivity, but this factor does not appear to have been given much attention in previous studies. In order to answer the question of why is there a wide variation in doctor output at low level medical facilities in China, an analytical framework of doctor productivity and utilization is developed. The simulation model is used to produce data that can be analyzed by such a framework. Great uncertainty about patient flows is one reason for the average lower and varying doctor productivity in lower level health facilities. Until uncertainty can be reduced, more flexibility is needed at the lower level to cope with changing utilization patterns and patient characteristics. The management by doctors of non-patient care activities (preventive programmes, medical research, teaching, and administration) is crucial to any approach to using doctor resources more effectively and efficiently.