Rate of incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with compensated viral cirrhosis

Cancer. 1999 May 15;85(10):2132-7.


Background: Cirrhosis of viral etiology due to hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The current study evaluated the rate of incidence of HCC in patients with compensated cirrhosis of viral etiology.

Methods: Two hundred fifty-nine cirrhotic patients (66 hepatitis B surface antigen [HBsAg] positive, 166 HCV positive, and 27 HBsAg/HCV positive) were longitudinally examined every 6 months by serum alpha-fetoprotein test and liver ultrasonography. The rates of incidence of HCC were calculated by the person-years method. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the cumulative probability of HCC development. Differences in survival time were evaluated by a log rank test. Independent predictors of HCC development were estimated by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis.

Results: During a mean follow-up of 64.5 months, HCC developed in 51 (19.7%) patients: in 34 of 166 HCV positive subjects (20.5%) (mean follow-up, 66.3 months), in 6 of 66 of those HBsAg positive (9.1%) (mean follow-up, 55.06 months), and in 11 of 27 of those with dual HBsAg/HCV infection (40.7%) (mean follow-up, 76.4 months). The rate of incidence of HCC per 100 person-years of follow-up was 3.7 in HCV positive subjects, 2.0 in those HBsAg positive, and 6.4 in those with dual infection. Cumulative HCC appearance rates in HBsAg positive, HCV positive, and HBsAg/HCV positive subgroups were 10%, 21%, and 23% at 5 years, 16%, 28%, and 45% at 10 years, and 16%, 40%, and 55% at 13 years, respectively. Multivariate analysis indicated that age >50 years (hazard risk [HR], 4.5; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.1-9.4), male gender (HR, 2.8; 95% CI = 1.1-5.3), and HBsAg/HCV coinfection (HR, 2.3; 95% CI = 1.1-4.6) were independent predictors of HCC development.

Conclusions: These findings confirm that male gender and more advanced age (>50 years) are risk factors for HCC in patients with cirrhosis. Furthermore, the data indicate that subjects with dual HBsAg/HCV infection are at highest risk for HCC. Surveillance programs for early detection of HCC should focus especially on these patients.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / epidemiology*
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / etiology
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / virology
  • Female
  • Hepatitis B / complications*
  • Hepatitis C / complications*
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Liver Cirrhosis / complications
  • Liver Cirrhosis / virology*
  • Liver Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • Liver Neoplasms / etiology
  • Liver Neoplasms / virology
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Population Surveillance
  • Risk Assessment*
  • Sex Factors