Cardiogenic shock complicating acute myocardial infarction: predictors of death. GUSTO Investigators. Global Utilization of Streptokinase and Tissue-Plasminogen Activator for Occluded Coronary Arteries

Am Heart J. 1999 Jul;138(1 Pt 1):21-31. doi: 10.1016/s0002-8703(99)70241-3.


Background: Current knowledge of predictors of death among patients with cardiogenic shock complicating myocardial infarction is limited. We aimed to develop a risk assessment prognostic algorithm of 30-day mortality, including clinical and hemodynamic data prospectively collected among patients with cardiogenic shock in the 41,021-patient Global Utilization of Streptokinase and Tissue Plasminogen Activator for Occluded Coronary Arteries (GUSTO-I) trial.

Methods: We used logistic regression modeling techniques to evaluate the relations between demographic, clinical, and hemodynamic characteristics and 30-day mortality rate for the entire shock population (n = 2968) and for patients who underwent right-heart catheterization (n = 995).

Results: The odds (95% confidence interval) of dying were 1.49 times higher (1.27-1.74) for patients 10 years older and 1.70 times higher (1.19-2.44) for patients with prior infarction. Findings derived from physical examination, such as altered sensorium and cold, clammy skin, were important independent predictors of prognosis (odds of dying 1.68 times higher for each [1.19-2.39 and 1.15-2.46]). The odds of dying were also 2.25 times higher (1.61-3.15) in patients with oliguria. Mortality rate was lowest for cardiac output and pulmonary capillary wedge measurements of 5.1 L/min and 20 mm Hg, respectively, and increased with either higher or lower values. Patients with shock had better outcomes than patients in whom shock developed later, although for the latter subgroup, prognosis was worse in patients who had heart failure (Killip class II to III).

Conclusions: We devised a prognostic algorithm for patients with cardiogenic shock complicating acute myocardial infarction. In addition to demographic and easily derived physical examination features, data derived from right-heart catheterization added valuable information that increased the ability to predict outcome in this high-risk population.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Algorithms
  • Blood Pressure
  • Cardiac Catheterization
  • Chi-Square Distribution
  • Confounding Factors, Epidemiologic
  • Death, Sudden, Cardiac / etiology*
  • Female
  • Heart Rate
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Myocardial Infarction / complications*
  • Myocardial Infarction / diagnosis
  • Myocardial Infarction / mortality
  • Myocardial Infarction / physiopathology
  • Odds Ratio
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prognosis
  • Prospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Shock, Cardiogenic / complications*
  • Shock, Cardiogenic / etiology*
  • Shock, Cardiogenic / mortality
  • Shock, Cardiogenic / physiopathology
  • Stroke Volume