Global dynamics of a SEIR model with varying total population size

Math Biosci. 1999 Sep;160(2):191-213. doi: 10.1016/s0025-5564(99)00030-9.

Abstract

A SEIR model for the transmission of an infectious disease that spreads in a population through direct contact of the hosts is studied. The force of infection is of proportionate mixing type. A threshold sigma is identified which determines the outcome of the disease; if sigma < or = 1, the infected fraction of the population disappears so the disease dies out, while of sigma > 1, the infected fraction persists and a unique endemic equilibrium state is shown, under a mild restriction on the parameters, to be globally asymptotically stable in the interior of the feasible region. Two other threshold parameters sigma' and sigma are also identified; they determine the dynamics of the population sizes in the cases when the disease dies out and when it is endemic, respectively.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Disease Transmission, Infectious*
  • Epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Models, Biological*
  • Population Dynamics*