The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: priorities for intervention

Emerg Infect Dis. Sep-Oct 1999;5(5):659-71. doi: 10.3201/eid0505.990507.

Abstract

We estimated the possible effects of the next influenza pandemic in the United States and analyzed the economic impact of vaccine-based interventions. Using death rates, hospitalization data, and outpatient visits, we estimated 89,000 to 207,000 deaths; 314,000 to 734,000 hospitalizations; 18 to 42 million outpatient visits; and 20 to 47 million additional illnesses. Patients at high risk (15% of the population) would account for approximately 84% of all deaths. The estimated economic impact would be US$71.3 to $166.5 billion, excluding disruptions to commerce and society. At $21 per vaccinee, we project a net savings to society if persons in all age groups are vaccinated. At $62 per vaccinee and at gross attack rates of 25%, we project net losses if persons not at high risk for complications are vaccinated. Vaccinating 60% of the population would generate the highest economic returns but may not be possible within the time required for vaccine effectiveness, especially if two doses of vaccine are required.

Publication types

  • Review

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Ambulatory Care / economics
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Disease Outbreaks / economics
  • Health Priorities*
  • Hospitalization / economics
  • Hospitalization / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Influenza Vaccines / economics*
  • Influenza, Human / economics*
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology
  • Influenza, Human / mortality
  • Influenza, Human / prevention & control*
  • Middle Aged
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Risk Factors
  • United States / epidemiology

Substances

  • Influenza Vaccines