Sensitivity analysis on a chance node with more than two branches

Med Decis Making. 1999 Oct-Dec;19(4):499-502. doi: 10.1177/0272989X9901900418.


Sensitivity analysis is an essential part of decision analysis. The literature on medical decision analysis suggests the use of two-branch chance nodes in decision trees to avoid logical inconsistencies during sensitivity analysis. The authors show that the two-branch decomposition is not appropriate for sensitivity analysis when multiple outcomes from a single state cannot be disentangled into a sensible sequence of events. They recommend retaining the natural structure of the tree and propose two sensitivity-analysis methods for use on chance nodes with three or more branches.

MeSH terms

  • Decision Support Techniques
  • Decision Trees*
  • HIV Infections / classification
  • Humans
  • Methods
  • Probability
  • Sensitivity and Specificity*