Predicting divorce among newlyweds from the first three minutes of a marital conflict discussion

Fam Process. 1999 Fall;38(3):293-301. doi: 10.1111/j.1545-5300.1999.00293.x.

Abstract

This study tested the hypothesis that how a discussion of a marital conflict begins--in its first few minutes--is a predictor of divorce. The marital conflict discussion of 124 newlywed couples was coded using the Specific Affect Coding System, and the data were divided into positive, negative, and positive-minus-negative affect totals for five 3-minute intervals. It was possible to predict marital outcome over a 6-year period using just the first 3 minutes of data for both husbands and wives. For husbands this prediction improved as the groups diverged in the remaining 12 minutes; for wives the prediction remained equally powerful for the remaining 12 minutes as it had been in the first 3 minutes.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Communication*
  • Conflict, Psychological*
  • Divorce / psychology*
  • Emotions*
  • Expressed Emotion
  • Female
  • Forecasting
  • Humans
  • Linear Models
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Male
  • Marriage / psychology*
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Observer Variation
  • Sex Factors
  • Time Factors
  • Verbal Behavior / classification