Improving Risk Assessments for Sex Offenders: A Comparison of Three Actuarial Scales

Law Hum Behav. 2000 Feb;24(1):119-36. doi: 10.1023/a:1005482921333.

Abstract

The study compared the predictive accuracy of three sex offender risk-assessment measures: the RRASOR (Hanson, 1997), Thornton's SACJ-Min (Grubin, 1998), and a new scale, Static-99, created by combining the items from the RRASOR and SACJ-Min. Predictive accuracy was tested using four diverse datasets drawn from Canada and the United Kingdom (total n = 1301). The RRASOR and the SACJ-Min showed roughly equivalent predictive accuracy, and the combination of the two scales was more accurate than either original scale. Static-99 showed moderate predictive accuracy for both sexual recidivism (r = 0.33, ROC area = 0.71) and violent (including sexual) recidivism (r = 0.32, ROC area = 0.69). The variation in the predictive accuracy of Static-99 across the four samples was no more than would be expected by chance.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Multicenter Study

MeSH terms

  • Actuarial Analysis / methods*
  • Adult
  • Canada
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Male
  • ROC Curve
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Risk Assessment / methods*
  • Sex Offenses / prevention & control*
  • Sex Offenses / psychology
  • United Kingdom
  • Violence / prevention & control
  • Violence / psychology