Retrospective studies identified oxidized low density lipoprotein (LDL) in the blood as a diagnostic marker of coronary artery disease (CAD). This prospective study sought to determine the prognostic value of oxidized LDL for CAD in cardiac transplant patients. Oxidized LDL was measured in 99 cardiac transplant patients with normal coronary angiograms at baseline and was measured again after a median follow-up of 2 years at the time of a second angiogram. Twenty-one patients developed angiographically detectable cardiac transplant vasculopathy (cases), and 78 individuals did not (controls). Cases had significantly higher baseline plasma levels of oxidized LDL than did controls: 1.18+/-0.70 versus 0.57+/-0.20 mg/dL (mean+/-SD, P<0.0001). The increase of oxidized LDL at the end of the follow-up was significantly higher in cases than in controls: 0. 75+/-0.73 mg/dL versus 0.14+/-0.27 mg/dL (P<0.0001). Baseline levels of oxidized LDL predicted cardiac transplant vasculopathy (chi(2)=16, P<0.0001) independent of pretransplant ischemic cardiomyopathy, time after transplantation, age, and serum levels of LDL and high density lipoprotein cholesterol. The development of transplant CAD was associated with a further increase of plasma levels of oxidized LDL (chi(2)=14, P=0.0002). Oxidized LDL is a prognostic marker of transplant CAD.