Incidence rates of malignant mesothelioma in Denmark and predicted future number of cases among men

Scand J Work Environ Health. 2000 Apr;26(2):112-7. doi: 10.5271/sjweh.520.


Objectives: This study analyzed the incidence rates of malignant mesothelioma in Denmark in order to predict the future number of cases that will occur among Danish men.

Methods: The 1912 cases of malignant mesothelioma reported to the Danish Cancer registry in 1943-1993 were analyzed in order to describe current incidence rates. By a Poisson regression model the relative risks of synthetic birth cohorts were estimated and used in the prediction of the future number of cases that will occur among Danish men.

Results: The incidence rate increased to 1.33 per 100000 person-years in 1983-1987 among men and to 0.51 in 1973-1977 among women. From the Poisson regression model, the risk for birth cohorts of men, relative to the 1940-1944 cohort, peaked in the 1940-1944 cohort and decreased to 0.57 in the 1950-1954 cohort. The age-specific incidence rate peaked at 246 per 100000 person-years in the age group 80-84 years. The future annual number of mesothelioma cases is expected to peak around 2015 with 93 cases among men born before 1955.

Conclusions: The fit of the models was not ideal, but with careful interpretation of the results, it was concluded that a further increase in the number of mesothelioma cases can be expected, and the effect of regulating the environmental exposure to asbestos cannot be expected within the next 10-15 years.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Age Distribution
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Cohort Studies
  • Confidence Intervals
  • Denmark / epidemiology
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Male
  • Mediastinal Neoplasms / diagnosis
  • Mediastinal Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • Mesothelioma / diagnosis
  • Mesothelioma / epidemiology*
  • Middle Aged
  • Peritoneal Neoplasms / diagnosis
  • Peritoneal Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • Poisson Distribution
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Registries
  • Risk Factors
  • Sex Distribution
  • Survival Rate