Objective: To identify potential risk factors for the development of chronic renal allograft failure.
Summary background data: Chronic allograft failure (CAF) is the leading cause of late graft loss in renal transplantation. The authors studied the risk factors for the development of CAF in a single center during a period in which a consistent baseline immunosuppression regimen (cyclosporine, azathioprine, and prednisolone) was used.
Methods: Data from the Oxford Transplant Center Database were assessed on 862 renal allografts during a 10-year period. Risk factors were identified using multivariate logistic regression analysis.
Results: Biopsy-proven CAF occurred in 77 patients (9.2%) in the entire group. Multivariate risk factor analysis revealed that early and late acute rejection episodes, proteinuria, and serum triglycerides were significant factors. Acute rejection after 3 months was more important than early acute rejection. Serum triglyceride level and proteinuria at 1 year were both elevated in the CAF group. Male sex provided a protective effect. Serum creatinine levels at 6 months after the transplant were not predictive of the risk of developing CAF.
Conclusions: These results from the largest single-center review to date suggest that both antigen-dependent and -independent factors are involved in the pathogenesis of CAF. Acute rejection at all time points has a significant impact on the development of CAF.