Context: Concern is increasing in both the medical community and among the general public about the possible transmission of hepatitis C virus (HCV) from infected health care workers to their patients. Until now, no reliable estimates for the risk of such transmission exist.
Objective: To estimate the probability of HCV transmission from a surgeon to a susceptible patient during invasive procedures.
Design: A model consisting of 4 probabilities was used: (A) the probability that the surgeon is infected with HCV, (B) the probability that the surgeon might contract percutaneous injuries, (C) the probability that an HCV-contaminated instrument will recontact the wound, and (D) the probability of HCV transmission after exposure. Values for the calculations were taken from published studies.
Results: When the surgeon's HCV status is unknown, the risk of HCV transmission during a single operation is 0.00018% +/- 0.00002% (mean +/- SD). If the surgeon is HCV RNA positive, this risk equals 0.014% +/- 0.002%. The likelihoods of transmission in at least 1 of 5000 invasive procedures performed by a surgeon during 10 years are 0.9% +/- 0.1% (HCV status unknown) and 50.3% +/- 4.8% (HCV RNA positive), respectively.
Conclusions: The calculated risks for HCV transmission from a surgeon to a susceptible patient during a single invasive procedure are comparable to the chance of acquiring HCV by receiving a blood transfusion. These figures could provide a basis for further discussions on this controversial subject and might also be relevant for future recommendations on the management of HCV-infected health care workers.