[Prognostic factors in advanced pancreatic cancer. Multivariate analysis of predictive survival score. University Surgery Association]

Ann Chir. 2000 Sep;125(7):625-30. doi: 10.1016/s0003-3944(00)00252-2.
[Article in French]


Study aim: To identify prognostic factors in advanced pancreatic cancer and to define a predictive score.

Patients and method: One hundred and sixty six patients were included in this multicentre study. Seventeen covariables were prospectively collected for each patient. Covariables associated with survival (p < 0.10) were analysed by a stepwise Cox model.

Results: Four prognostic factors were selected on multivariate analysis: pain (RR 1.5; CI: 1.1-2.0), ascites (RR 1.7; CI: 1.0-2.9), weight loss > 10 kg (RR 1.4; CI: 1.0-2.0), and metastases (RR 2.3: CI: 1.6-3.2). A score was defined by attributing a value of one for pain, ascites and weight loss, and two for metastases. Patients with a score > 2 had a median survival of 2 months (SE: 0.5), and patients with a score < or = 2 had a median survival of 6 months (SE: 0.6) (Logrank p < 0.0001).

Conclusion: The proposed score may be helpful in therapeutic decisions concerning surgery, palliative chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy. However, this score must be validated on an independent series of patients.

Publication types

  • English Abstract
  • Multicenter Study

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Ascites
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Neoplasm Metastasis
  • Neoplasm Staging / methods
  • Pain
  • Pancreatic Neoplasms / pathology*
  • Prognosis
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Prospective Studies
  • Survival Analysis
  • Weight Loss