Introduction: Italy delayed limiting access to the Faculty of Medicine and the reform of schools of specialization was not accompanied by programming the number of scholarships, so employment expectations are often disappointing. The aim of this study is to analyze the employment prospects of specialists in urology through the development of possible scenarios for the 5-year period 2000-2004.
Materials and methods: We recorded data received from Italian Schools of Specialization in Urology on specialists in the 5-year period 1994-1998. We also tried to obtain a picture of the national distribution of urologists and urological units. Statistical processing was done with SPSS for Windows 5.0.
Results: In the last 5 years, 501 urologists were licensed at an average age of 37 years; 535 urological units exist; 2,332 doctors practice urology (2,235 males and 97 females) for a ratio of 1 urologist to 24,500 inhabitants. By comparing the 'entrance' forecast with the potential 'exit', we can hypothesize an annual excess of 80 units. There is no significant correlation between the number of urologists in each structure and the number of inhabitants for each urologist.
Conclusions: The present government programme does not take into account continual changes in employment and many other variables when defining the actual need for specialists. For valid predictions, the data we obtain must be updated for at least 5 years.
Copyright 2000 S. Karger AG, Basel