Aims: The purpose of this study was to analyse time trends in first acute myocardial infarction (AMI) incidence in Stockholm County during 1984-1996.
Methods and results: The study base consisted of the population of Stockholm County 30-89 years old 1984-1996. New cases of first AMI in the study base were identified by combining information regarding hospital discharges and deaths. The diagnostic quality was evaluated for 2403 First-AMI cases 45-70 years old that occurred during 1992-1994. The evaluation indicated a very high agreement with diagnostic criteria of AMI among hospital treated cases. Among fatal cases outside hospital, the autopsy rate was nearly 70%. The incidence of first AMI declined during the study period for both men and women. In men, the age-adjusted incidence of first AMI was 18% lower in 1994-1996 than in 1984-1987 and in women it was 13% lower. The average yearly decline was 2% for men and 1.4% for women.
Conclusion: The results of this study suggest a continued decline in AMI incidence in Stockholm. A reduction in the proportion of regular smokers has probably contributed to this decline. Future trends in AMI incidence are difficult to predict in view of diverging trends in risk factors.