Prognostic parameters for flare in systemic lupus erythematosus

Rheumatology (Oxford). 2000 Dec;39(12):1316-9. doi: 10.1093/rheumatology/39.12.1316.


Objective: To characterize prognostic parameters for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) flares.

Methods: In a prospective study, 120 SLE patients attending our out-patient clinic were evaluated every 3 months for 2 yr. At every visit clinical manifestations and laboratory parameters were assessed and the SLE disease activity index (SLEDAI) was determined. A correlation analysis of the number of flares in the first year and SLEDAI as a marker of disease activity after 1 and 2 yr with several parameters determined at the start of the study was performed.

Results: Flares were predicted by erythrocyte sedimentation rate (P=0.001), anaemia (P=0.006) and lymphopenia (P=0.005). The SLEDAI after 1 yr was predicted by the titre of antinuclear antibodies (P=0.009), antibodies against double-stranded DNA (P=0.007), lymphopenia (P=0.007), anaemia (P=0.0002) and SLEDAI determined at the start of the study (P=0.001).

Conclusions: Anaemia and lymphopenia predict both flares and SLEDAI within the next year of follow-up.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Anemia / etiology
  • Antibodies, Antinuclear / analysis
  • Biomarkers / analysis
  • Blood Sedimentation
  • Disease Progression
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Lupus Erythematosus, Systemic / immunology
  • Lupus Erythematosus, Systemic / pathology*
  • Lymphopenia
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prognosis
  • Prospective Studies


  • Antibodies, Antinuclear
  • Biomarkers