Predictive model for survival at the conclusion of a damage control laparotomy

Am J Surg. 2000 Dec;180(6):540-4; discussion 544-5. doi: 10.1016/s0002-9610(00)00497-9.


Background: We employed modern statistical and data mining methods to model survival based on preoperative and intraoperative parameters for patients undergoing damage control surgery.

Methods: One hundred seventy-four parameters were collected from 68 damage control patients in prehospital, emergency center, operating room, and intensive care unit (ICU) settings. Data were analyzed with logistic regression and data mining. Outcomes were survival and death after the initial operation.

Results: Overall mortality was 66.2%. Logistic regression identified pH at initial ICU admission (odds ratio: 4.4) and worst partial thromboplastin time from hospital admission to ICU admission (odds ratio: 9.4) as significant. Data mining selected the same factors, and generated a simple algorithm for patient classification. Model accuracy was 83%.

Conclusion: Inability to correct pH at the conclusion of initial damage-control laparotomy and the worst PTT can be predictive of death. These factors may be useful to identify patients with a high risk of mortality.

MeSH terms

  • Critical Illness / mortality
  • Decision Trees*
  • Hospital Mortality
  • Humans
  • Hydrogen-Ion Concentration
  • Laparotomy
  • Logistic Models*
  • Prognosis
  • Risk Factors
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Survival Analysis
  • Wounds and Injuries / mortality*
  • Wounds and Injuries / surgery