Major factors in the development of diabetes mellitus in 10,000 men

Arch Intern Med. 1975 Jun;135(6):811-7.


The average annual incidence of diabetes among 8,688 adult men followed up for five years was 8.0/1,000 with Asian, African and Israeli-born having higher rates than European-born. Multivariate analysis of the findings suggested the following: the most significant variables associated with the development of diabetes are overweight and peripheral vascular disease; the high incidence of diabetes in immigrants from Asia and Africa might be an example of Neel's "thrifty genotype" or failure of adaptation to relatively rapid environmental changes; serum cholesterol level, blood pressure, uric acid level, and education were important also; and the probability of developing diabetes within five years rises from 17/1,000 (when the major variables are low or absent) to 450/1,000 (when they are high and present). This has important clinical implications.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Adaptation, Physiological
  • Adult
  • Africa, Northern / ethnology
  • Age Factors
  • Asia / ethnology
  • Blood Glucose / analysis
  • Blood Pressure
  • Body Height
  • Body Weight
  • Cholesterol / blood
  • Diabetes Mellitus / epidemiology*
  • Diabetes Mellitus / genetics
  • Educational Status
  • Ethnic Groups
  • Europe / ethnology
  • Genotype
  • Glucose Tolerance Test
  • Humans
  • Intermittent Claudication / epidemiology
  • Israel
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Prospective Studies
  • Risk
  • Uric Acid / blood
  • Vascular Diseases / epidemiology


  • Blood Glucose
  • Uric Acid
  • Cholesterol