Animal model methodology was used to compute yearly measures of relative fertility of Holstein AI mating bulls based upon 70-d nonreturn of first breedings as reported to U.S. DHIA from 1988 through 1997. Estimated Relative Conception Rates (ERCR) were computed for bulls with a minimum of 50 first breedings in a single year using variance ratios 45.5 for mating bull, 45.5 for animal genetic effects, and 31 for permanent environment. The model assumed repeatability across lactations of 0.05 and included fixed effects of herd-year-month bred and classes of parity, early lactation energy-corrected milk and days open when bred. Estimates of fertility were greater for breedings to cows that were young, had low early lactation production, and were in late stages of lactation. ERCR were expressed as difference in nonreturn from the average AI mating bull of herdmates. Values ranged from -18 to +13. For ERCR computed from a minimum of 1000 breedings, 90% were within four units of zero. Early ERCR computed from a few breedings in a single year were tested for ability to predict later ERCR computed from a minimum of 1000 different breedings. Early ERCR computed from 300 or more matings accurately predicted later independent ERCR. For yearly estimates each based upon a minimum of 1000 breedings, 8% changed more than three units, and 4% declined more than three units. Correlations between ERCR and predicted transmitting abilities protein and type production index were significant but accounted for little variance. Correlations between ERCR and other traits were not significant.