Probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis of HIV prevention. Comparing a Bayesian approach with traditional deterministic sensitivity analysis

Eval Rev. 2001 Aug;25(4):474-502. doi: 10.1177/0193841X0102500404.

Abstract

In cost-effectiveness analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is used to measure economic efficiency of a new intervention, relative to an existing one. However, costs and effects are seldom known with certainty. Uncertainty arises from two main sources: uncertainty regarding correct values of intervention-related parameters and uncertainty associated with sampling variation. Recently, attention has focused on Bayesian techniques for quantifying uncertainty. We computed the Bayesian-based 95% credible interval estimates of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of several related HIV prevention interventions and compared these results with univariate sensitivity analyses. The conclusions were comparable, even though the probabilistic technique provided additional information.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Review

MeSH terms

  • Bayes Theorem*
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis*
  • Female
  • HIV Infections* / economics
  • HIV Infections* / prevention & control
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Probability
  • Quality-Adjusted Life Years
  • Sexual Behavior*