Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population

Phys Rev Lett. 2002 Jan 7;88(1):017902. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.88.017902. Epub 2001 Dec 14.


The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological, and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes ("extreme events"). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multiagent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system's global state.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Biological Evolution*
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Population Dynamics*