A two-factor model for predicting when a couple will divorce: exploratory analyses using 14-year longitudinal data

Fam Process. 2002 Spring;41(1):83-96. doi: 10.1111/j.1545-5300.2002.40102000083.x.


This article examines 14-year longitudinal data and attempts to create a post hoc model that uses Time-1 data to "predict" the length of time the marriage will last. The sample consists of the 21 couples (of 79 studied) who divorced over a 14-year period. A two-factor model is proposed. One factor is the amount of unregulated volatile positive and negative affect in the marriage, and this factor predicts a short marriage length for the divorcing couples. A second factor is called "neutral affective style," and this factor predicts a long marriage length for the divorcing couples. This model is compared to a Time-1 model of ailing marriage in which Time-1 marital satisfaction is used to predict the timing of divorce.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Affect / classification
  • Conflict, Psychological
  • Divorce* / statistics & numerical data
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Indiana
  • Interpersonal Relations
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Male
  • Marriage / psychology*
  • Models, Psychological*
  • Personal Satisfaction
  • Regression Analysis
  • Time