Can we reverse the HIV/AIDS pandemic with an expanded response?

Lancet. 2002 Jul 6;360(9326):73-7. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(02)09339-X.


HIV/AIDS has reached pandemic proportions, and is one of the leading causes of death worldwide. In 2001, the Declaration of Commitment on HIV/AIDS set out several aims with respect to reducing the effect and spread of HIV/AIDS, and an expanded response in low-income and middle-income countries was initiated. Here we examine the potential effect of the expanded global response based on analyses of epidemiological data, of mathematical models of HIV-1 transmission, and a review of the impact of prevention interventions on risk behaviours. Analyses suggest that if the successes achieved in some countries in prevention of transmission can be expanded to a global scale by 2005, about 29 million new infections could be prevented by 2010.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Review

MeSH terms

  • Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome* / epidemiology
  • Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome* / etiology
  • Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome* / prevention & control
  • Adult
  • Disease Outbreaks*
  • Global Health*
  • Humans
  • Public Health / trends*