Small area demographic forecasts

Appl Demor. 1994 Summer;9(1):2-4.


The author reviews the literature on small area forecasting with a focus on the work of Robert Schmitt. He finds that "the accuracy of small area forecasts has not increased appreciably over the past four decades, despite methodological progress, increased knowledge gained from the evaluation of forecasts, and more widely available and rich data. A comment made by Schmitt 40 years ago is still largely true today, 'No method is yet known for forecasting the population of small urban areas with a high degree of accuracy'...."

MeSH terms

  • Demography
  • Forecasting*
  • Population
  • Population Characteristics
  • Research Design*
  • Statistics as Topic*
  • Urban Population*