Community interventions and the epidemic prevention potential

Vaccine. 2002 Sep 10;20(27-28):3254-62. doi: 10.1016/s0264-410x(02)00316-x.


Evaluation of community-level effects of intervention programs in infectious diseases is receiving increased attention. In this paper, we consider evaluation of the community-level effectiveness measures on the example of vaccination of children against influenza. We introduce the concept of the epidemic prevention potential (EPP) as a measure of the ability of an intervention to either prevent transmission or at least to keep it below a pre-defined limit. As a concept to describe the general ability of an intervention to limit outbreaks to a certain defined size, the term EPP fills a void. We constructed a stochastic simulation model of influenza transmission and vaccination in a structured community to illustrate the effectiveness measures of interest and the epidemic prevention potential. The concepts are general and could be applied to other interventions, such as antivirals and quarantine.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Communicable Disease Control / methods*
  • Communicable Disease Control / statistics & numerical data
  • Communicable Diseases / epidemiology*
  • Communicable Diseases / immunology*
  • Community Health Services*
  • Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control*
  • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Influenza Vaccines / administration & dosage
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology
  • Influenza, Human / immunology
  • Influenza, Human / prevention & control
  • Influenza, Human / transmission
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Vaccination


  • Influenza Vaccines