The role of individual differences in the accuracy of confidence judgments

J Gen Psychol. 2002 Jul;129(3):257-99. doi: 10.1080/00221300209602099.

Abstract

Generally, self-assessment of accuracy in the cognitive domain produces overconfidence, whereas self-assessment of visual perceptual judgments results in underconfidence. Despite contrary empirical evidence, in models attempting to explain those phenomena, individual differences have often been disregarded. The authors report on 2 studies in which that shortcoming was addressed. In Experiment 1, participants (N= 520) completed a large number of cognitive-ability tests. Results indicated that individual differences provide a meaningful source of overconfidence and that a metacognitive trait might mediate that effect. In further analysis, there was only a relatively small correlation between test accuracy and confidence bias. In Experiment 2 (N = 107 participants), both perceptual and cognitive ability tests were included, along with measures of personality. Results again indicated the presence of a confidence factor that transcended the nature of the testing vehicle. Furthermore, a small relationship was found between that factor and some self-reported personality measures. Thus, personality traits and cognitive ability appeared to play only a small role in determining the accuracy of self-assessment. Collectively, the present results suggest that there are multiple causes of miscalibration, which current models of over- and underconfidence fail to encompass.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Bias
  • Cognition*
  • Factor Analysis, Statistical
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Intelligence
  • Judgment*
  • Male
  • New South Wales
  • Perception
  • Personality
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Self-Assessment*
  • Texas