Fertility and the economy

J Popul Econ. 1992 Aug;5(3):185-201. doi: 10.1007/BF00172092.

Abstract

PIP: Fertility and the economy is examined in the context of the Malthusian question about the links between family choices and longterm economic growth. Micro level differences are not included not are a comprehensive range of economic or determinant variables. Specific attention is paid to income and price effects, the quality of children, overlapping generations, mortality effects, uncertainty, and economic growth. Fertility and the demand for children in linked to parental incomes and the cost of rearing children, which is affected by public policies that change the costs. Demand is also related to child and adult mortality, and uncertainty about sex of the child. Fertility in one generation affects fertility in the next. Malthusian and neoclassical models do not capture the current model of modern economies with rising income/capita and human and physical capital, extensive involvement of married women in the labor force, and declining fertility to very low levels. In spite of the present advances in firm knowledge about the relationships between fertility and economic and social variables, there is still much greater ignorance of the interactions. The Malthusian utility function that says fertility rises and falls with income did hold up to 2 centuries of scrutiny, and the Malthusian inclusion of the shifting tastes in his analysis could be translated in the modern context to include price of children. The inclusion of net cost has significant consequences, i.e., rural fertility can be higher because the cost of rearing when children contribute work to maintaining the farm is lower than in the city. An income tax deduction for children in the US reduces cost. Economic growth raises the cost of children due the time spent on child care becoming more valuable. The modern context has changed from Malthusian time, and the cost of education, training, and medical care is relevant. The implication is that a rise in income could reduce the demand for children when education and training of children increases. Quality is substituted for quantity. The neoclassical model that "the capital-labor ratio and the degree of capital deepening" is affected by population growth is examined as well as the modern approach, and the implications are expressed, i.e., intergenerational transfers and parental altruism.

MeSH terms

  • Behavior
  • Child Rearing*
  • Commerce*
  • Demography
  • Economics*
  • Fertility*
  • Income*
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Mortality*
  • Population
  • Population Dynamics*
  • Psychology
  • Quality of Life*
  • Research
  • Sex*
  • Social Sciences
  • Social Values
  • Social Welfare
  • Socioeconomic Factors