[Fertility levels, trends, and differentials in Brazil since the 1930s]

Rev Bras Estud Popul. 1991 Jan-Dec;8(1-2):72-111.
[Article in Portuguese]

Abstract

PIP: The total fertility rate (TFR) estimated for the period of 1930-35 was 6.22 children per mother, which declined to 5.80 during 1940-45, increased slightly to 5.86 during 1950-55, and to 6.0 during 1960-65, to drop to 4.97 during 1970-75. The decline was 17.2% between 1963 and 1973, 14.3% between 1943-1973, and 20.1% between 1933 and 1973 (or an average decline by 1.26 children per woman in 40 years). The evolution of the national and regional levels of fertility was estimated by a unique methodology that utilized the average births per woman with data extracted from censuses and research samples. In particular, the technique of Brass was used with correction for P2/F2 as valid data 5 years prior to taking the information. In this manner the TFR was estimated at 3.5142 based on the 1984 national household survey and specific rates for age groups encompassed the period of 1979-84. In this case it was estimated that 3,311,000 births must have occurred on the average annually during this period. It was only in 1980 that the Civil Register recorded 3,860,000 births. During this same period the hypothesis of constancy, utilizing current fertility rates corrected for P2/F2, yielded 2,745,000 births in the course of 5 years. In recent times fertility in Brazil has been on a declining trend, starting in the 1960s. The intensity of this decline varied according to the sources of information: the Civil Register and the national survey of households. Prior to the 1960s the less developed regions of the north experienced pronounced increases, while the southeastern and southern regions showed declines. From the mid-1960s all regions experienced a forceful decline in fertiltiy levels. The results indicate the convincing nature of the proposed model for estimating the levels and patterns of fertility, and it is particularly useful for other levels of disaggregation.

Publication types

  • English Abstract

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Age Factors*
  • Americas
  • Birth Rate*
  • Brazil
  • Child*
  • Data Collection*
  • Demography*
  • Developing Countries
  • Family Characteristics*
  • Fertility*
  • Geography*
  • Latin America
  • Methods*
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Population
  • Population Characteristics
  • Population Dynamics
  • Registries*
  • Research
  • Research Design*
  • Sampling Studies
  • Social Sciences
  • South America
  • Statistics as Topic*