[Is family planning effective and profitable in Rwanda?]

Imbonezamuryango. 1990 Aug:(18):22-7.
[Article in French]

Abstract

PIP: Although the demographic explosion in Rwanda will have catastrophic consequences if it is left unchecked, the family planning program has been received with hostility within the country. The National Population Office has conducted 2 studies to provide information on the costs and use of family planning services from 1981-88 and to project the findings into the future in demographic and financial terms. The population of Rwanda increased from 2 million in 1950 to 7 million in 1990 and will exceed 10 million in 2000. The projection is based on various hypotheses about demographic behavior from 1981, when the family planning program began, to 2011. The model measures the impact of family planning on population size and then assesses the repercussions of family planning on health, education, and agriculture expenditures. According to the projection, in the year 2011 with and without family planning respectively, the total population will be 17.7 or 13.2 million, the rate of increase will be 4.5% or 2.7% per year, and the number of children per woman will be 10.6 or 4.7. The rate of contraceptive prevalence is projected to increase from 8.0% in 1990 to 34.8% in 2000 and 46.8% in 2011. Expenditures for health care increase as a function of population size and therefore grow more rapidly without family planning. The government would save 29.2% of health expenditures and about 1/3 in education expenditures in 2010 if fertility declined according to the projection. Lower fertility would facilitate improvements in both health and education services. But it is in the agricultural sector that family planning would have the greatest impact in Rwanda. 93% of the economically active population is employed in agriculture, but available land has disappeared and productivity has declined due to soil exhaustion. The food supply is no longer adequate and famine threatens certain regions. Because population is increasing more rapidly than food production, the per capita food supply will decline with or without family planning, in 2010 the total availability of food will be 4.3% greater than with family planning, but the population will be 34% larger. Without family planning per capita food availability will decline by 57.4% compared to 1981, while with family planning the decline will be only 47.9%. A cost analysis of the family planning program indicates that the savings in the health, education, and agricultural sectors obtained through family planning exceed the direct costs of the family assumption of a higher rate of contraceptive usage requiring a 4 times greater expenditure but permitting the food supply to meet the minimal needs of the population in all years.

Publication types

  • English Abstract

MeSH terms

  • Africa
  • Africa South of the Sahara
  • Africa, Eastern
  • Africa, Northern
  • Agriculture*
  • Attitude
  • Behavior
  • Conservation of Natural Resources
  • Contraception
  • Contraception Behavior*
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis*
  • Delivery of Health Care*
  • Demography
  • Developing Countries
  • Economics
  • Education*
  • Environment
  • Environmental Pollution*
  • Evaluation Studies as Topic*
  • Family Planning Services
  • Financial Management
  • Food Supply*
  • Forecasting*
  • Health
  • Health Care Rationing*
  • Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice*
  • Health Planning*
  • Health Services*
  • Population
  • Population Dynamics
  • Program Evaluation*
  • Psychology
  • Research
  • Rwanda
  • Starvation*
  • Statistics as Topic
  • Time Factors
  • Time*