Aims: To assess the 5 year incidence of cataract surgery in an older population based prospective cohort.
Methods: 5 Year prospective follow up of the population based Blue Mountains Eye Study (BMES) performed in 1992. The follow up study examined 2335 survivors (75.1%) of the 3654 baseline participants. Baseline and 5 year slit lamp and retroillumination lens photographs were graded for presence of cortical, nuclear, or posterior subcapsular cataract using the Wisconsin cataract grading method and cataract surgery was documented from the history and the clinical examination.
Results: An overall cataract surgery rate of 5.7% in first or both eyes was documented. The incidence was 0.3% in people aged 49-54 years at baseline, 1.7% for ages 55-64 years, 7.9% for ages 65 to 74 years, and 17.4% in people aged 75 years or older. The rate of surgery in first or both eyes was 6.0% in women and 5.2% in men, age adjusted p = 0.66. Bilateral cataract surgery was performed during follow up on 2.7% of participants, while 43.1% of unilateral phakic cases had second eye surgery. Presence of any posterior subcapsular (PSC) cataract, either alone or in combination with other cataract types, was the most likely type of cataract at baseline to be associated with incident cataract surgery. Baseline age was the most important non-ocular variable predicting incident cataract surgery.
Conclusions: This study has documented age specific rates for 5 year incident cataract surgery in an older community. The finding of relatively similar incidence rates and ocular predictors of cataract surgery to those reported by the Beaver Dam Eye Study, Wisconsin, United States, is of interest, given previous documented similarities between these two populations.