Overall injury risk to different drivers: combining exposure, frequency, and severity models

Accid Anal Prev. 2003 Jul;35(4):441-50. doi: 10.1016/s0001-4575(02)00021-0.


Traffic crash risk assessments should incorporate appropriate exposure data. However, existing US nationwide crash data sets, the NASS General Estimates System (GES) and the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), do not contain information on driver or vehicle exposure. In order to obtain appropriate exposure data, this work estimates vehicle miles driven (VMD) by different drivers using the Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS). These results are combined with annual crash rates and injury severity information from the GES for a comprehensive assessment of overall risk to different drivers across vehicle classes. Data are distinguished by driver age, gender, vehicle type, crash type (rollover versus non-rollover), and injury severity. After correcting for drivers' crash exposure, results indicate that young drivers are far more crash prone than other drivers (per VMD) and that drivers of sports utility vehicles (SUVs) and pickups (PUs) are more likely to be involved in rollover crashes than those driving passenger cars. Although, the results suggest that drivers of SUVs are generally much less crash prone than drivers of passenger cars, the rollover propensity of SUVs and the severity of that crash type offset many of the incident benefits for SUV drivers.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Accidents, Traffic / statistics & numerical data*
  • Age Factors
  • Automobile Driving / statistics & numerical data*
  • Automobiles / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • Poisson Distribution
  • Risk Factors
  • Sex Factors
  • United States