MELD score predicts 1-year patient survival post-orthotopic liver transplantation

Liver Transpl. 2003 May;9(5):473-6. doi: 10.1053/jlts.2003.50090.


The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is an important predictor in patients awaiting orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). However, the model's association with posttransplant patient survival is unclear. We studied 1-year patient survival in 404 adult patients who underwent OLT at the University of California Los Angeles. The hazard rates of patient survival according to the MELD strata and United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) statuses were assessed by Proportional Hazard Cox regression analysis. The difference in survival for MELD strata and UNOS status were compared using the Cox model. There was a significant difference in 1-year patient (P =.0006) survival using different MELD strata, whereas there was a trend according to UNOS status (P =.051). Increased rate of death was observed in recipients of OLT with higher MELD scores (> 36, hazard ratio 3.9; 95% CI 1.55, 10.27) and more urgent UNOS status (2A; hazard ratio, 1.99; 95% CI 1.07, 3.7). The MELD stratum is better associated with 1-year patient survival in liver transplant recipients than UNOS statuses. Patient survival was worse with higher MELD scores.

MeSH terms

  • Bilirubin / blood
  • Creatinine / blood
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Liver Failure / mortality*
  • Liver Failure / surgery*
  • Liver Transplantation / mortality*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Survival Analysis
  • Waiting Lists


  • Creatinine
  • Bilirubin