Objective: This study was undertaken to determine the demographic, anatomic, institutional, and surgical risk factors associated with outcomes after the Norwood operation.
Methods: A total of 710 of 985 neonates with critical aortic stenosis or atresia enrolled in a prospective 29-institution study between 1994 and 2000 underwent the Norwood operation. Admission echocardiograms were independently reviewed for 64% of neonates. Competing risks analyses were constructed for outcomes after Norwood operation and after cavopulmonary shunt. Incremental risk factors for outcome events were sought.
Results: Overall survivals after the Norwood operation were 72%, 60%, and 54% at 1 month, 1 year, and 5 years, respectively. According to competing risks analysis, 97% of neonates reached a subsequent transition state by 18 months after Norwood operation, consisting of death (37%), cavopulmonary shunt (58%), or other state (2%, cardiac transplantation, biventricular repair, or Fontan operation). Risk factors for death occurring before subsequent transition included patient-specific variables (lower birth weight, smaller ascending aorta, older age at Norwood operation), institutional variables (institutions enrolling < or =10 neonates, two institutions enrolling >/=40 neonates), and procedural variables (shunt originating from aorta, longer circulatory arrest time, and management of the ascending aorta). Of neonates undergoing cavopulmonary shunt, 91% had reached a subsequent transition state by 6 years after cavopulmonary shunt, consisting of Fontan operation (79%), death (9%), or cardiac transplantation (3%). Risk factors for death occurring before subsequent transition included younger age at cavopulmonary shunt and need for right atrioventricular valve repair.
Conclusions: Competing risks analysis defines the prevalence of the various outcomes after Norwood operation and predicts improved outcomes with successful modification of controllable risk factors.