Population dynamics of HTLV-I infection: a discrete-time mathematical epidemic model approach

Math Med Biol. 2003 Mar;20(1):29-45. doi: 10.1093/imammb/20.1.29.

Abstract

Human T-cell Leukaemia Virus Type I (HTLV-I) is a retrovirus that causes Adult T-cell Leukaemia (ATL). The transmission routes of HTLV-I are (i) from infected mothers to their newborn babies, (ii) from infected males (husbands) to females (their wives) by long-term sexual intercourse, and (iii) from infected females (wives) to males (their husbands). Eshima et al. (2001) analysed a continuous-time HTLV-I model with no age structure in the population. In this paper, we consider the population dynamics of HTLV-I infection in a discrete-time mathematical model incorporating an age structure. The necessary and sufficient condition for the extinction of HTLV-I is derived from the mathematical model. A simulation of the HTLV-I infection based on the model demonstrates a rapid reduction of the HTLV-I infection proportion in Japan.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Computer Simulation
  • Disease Transmission, Infectious
  • Epidemiologic Methods*
  • Female
  • HTLV-I Infections / epidemiology
  • HTLV-I Infections / transmission*
  • Human T-lymphotropic virus 1*
  • Humans
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Biological*
  • Population Dynamics
  • Time Factors