Coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

J Clin Epidemiol. 2003 Sep;56(9):880-90. doi: 10.1016/s0895-4356(03)00055-6.


Risk prediction functions for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) were estimated using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, a prospective study of CHD in 15,792 persons recruited in 1987-1989 from four U.S. communities, with follow-up through 1998. Predictivity of which individuals had incident CHD was assessed by increase in area under ROC curves resulting from adding nontraditional risk factors and markers of subclinical disease to a basic model containing only traditional risk factors. We also assessed the increase in population attributable risk. The additional factors were body mass index; waist-hip ratio; sport activity index; forced expiratory volume; plasma fibrinogen, factor VIII, von Willebrand factor, and Lp(a); heart rate; Keys score; pack-years smoking; and subclinical disease marker carotid intima-media thickness. These factors substantially improved prediction of future CHD for men, less for women, and also increased attributable risks.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Biomarkers / blood
  • Blood Coagulation Factors / analysis
  • Carotid Arteries
  • Continental Population Groups
  • Coronary Disease / blood
  • Coronary Disease / etiology*
  • Coronary Disease / pathology
  • Diabetes Complications
  • Female
  • Health Surveys
  • Humans
  • Hypertension / complications
  • Lipoprotein(a) / analysis
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Obesity / complications
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prospective Studies
  • ROC Curve
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Sex Factors
  • Smoking / adverse effects
  • Tunica Intima / pathology


  • Biomarkers
  • Blood Coagulation Factors
  • Lipoprotein(a)